For numerous months, the frequency of China’s military aircraft intrusions into Taiwan’s air defense zone has almost doubled. This escalation includes an increase in fighter jets and bomber missions, as Beijing amplifies its intimidation tactics towards the island democracy. Taiwan’s foreign minister has expressed readiness for the potentiality of a conflict with China in 2027. To respond to this threat, the United States administration is preparing a $500 million weapons package for Taiwan.
China’s interest in invading Taiwan is driven by a combination of historical, political, and strategic factors. The complex history between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan can be traced back to the Chinese Civil War when the defeated Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan, while the Communist Party established the PRC in mainland China. Since then, both the PRC and Taiwan have claimed to be the legitimate government of all China.
The PRC upholds the “One-China policy,” considering Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, and has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. Reuniting with Taiwan is viewed as a crucial step towards national unity and the fulfillment of its territorial claims.
Politically, Taiwan’s thriving democracy contrasts with the PRC’s one-party, authoritarian system. Taiwan’s democratic success could be perceived as a challenge to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule in mainland China. By reunifying with Taiwan, the PRC would be able to exert direct control over the island’s political system and eliminate this ideological contrast.
In terms of strategic and economic importance, Taiwan occupies a significant location in the Western Pacific, between the South and East China Seas. Gaining control of Taiwan would allow China to expand its military and economic influence in the region. Additionally, Taiwan is a global leader in the high-tech industry, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. Acquiring these resources and capabilities could boost China’s economic growth and global competitiveness.
In an open conflict, some Western experts predict that Taiwan could at best aim to slow a Chinese attack, try to prevent a shore landing by Chinese amphibious forces, and mount guerrilla strikes while waiting for outside help.