Turkey has reportedly made significant progress in talks with the United States on the details of plans to decommission Russian supplied S-400 long range air defence systems, which is intended to facilitate the NATO member’s resumption of acquisitions of F-35 fifth generation fighters and possibly its full reentry into the F-35 program as a Tier 3 partner. Turkey was formally evicted from the F-35 program in July 2019, after receiving its first components from its S-400 system earlier that month, with Washington having used access to the F-35 to impose pressure on Ankara to abide by NATO’s wider policy of denying arms revenues to the Russian defence sector. While the Turkish government signalled that it could respond by acquiring Russian fighter aircraft such as the Su-35 or Su-57, the viability of this was always highly questionable due to the country’s membership of NATO and close integration with Western militaries as well as its tremendous dependance on the Western world for technology transfers, trade, and political and military support. After having made concessions to Washington to be able to acquire F-16 fourth generation fighters, which are exported with fewer restrictions than the F-35, Turkey is expected to end plans to acquire the older aircraft and focus financing on F-35 acquisitions.
The United States reportedly submitted a detailed proposal for the resolution of the S-400 issue during the summer, with a face saving resolution expected to allow Turkey to keep the Russian missile systems. According to information obtained by Turkish news outlet Kathimerini, control of the S-400s are to be transferred to American control but will remain on Turkish territory – possibly at the U.S.-controlled sector of Incirlik Air Base where shared nuclear weapons are stored. This would also raise the high possibility that S-400 systems could be tested by the United States Armed Forces to provide further insight into how Russia’s primary air defence asset can best be countered. Should such a deal be reached, the implications for Turkish aerial warfare capabilities will be significant. The F-35 is one of just two fifth generation fighters in large scale production worldwide, alongside the Chinese J-20, and is gradually revolutionising the aerial warfare capabilities of countries across the Western Bloc. Turkey currently relies on obsolete variants of the F-16 and F-4, which still use ageing mechanically scanned array radars and have not integrated 21st century air to air missile classes on any meaningful scale.